From owner-wx-atlan@listserv.uiuc.edu Tue Oct 19 09:11:18 2004 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by kukui.ifa.hawaii.edu (8.11.7p1+Sun/8.11.7) with SMTP id i9JJAxb23676 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2004 09:10:59 -1000 (HST) Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id i9ILvmjY047376; Tue, 19 Oct 2004 14:00:31 -0500 Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8e) with spool id 5137675 for WX-ATLAN@LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU; Tue, 19 Oct 2004 14:00:30 -0500 Received: from elk1.alaweb.com (elk1.alaweb.com [216.108.208.45]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id i9JJ0QwI060056; Tue, 19 Oct 2004 14:00:27 -0500 Received: from elk1.alaweb.com (elk1.alaweb.com [127.0.0.1]) by alaweb.com (Rockliffe SMTPRA 6.0.11) with SMTP id ; Tue, 19 Oct 2004 13:59:46 -0500 Received: from 216.108.220.136 by elk1.alaweb.com (InterScan E-Mail VirusWall NT); Tue, 19 Oct 2004 13:59:35 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 Message-ID: <03c801c4b60e$06312d20$54dc6cd8@default> Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 13:58:53 -0500 Reply-To: Gary Padgett Sender: WX-ATLAN Atlantic & Gulf Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: Gary Padgett Subject: SUMMARY: Part 2 - August Tropical Cyclone Summary To: WX-ATLAN@listserv.uiuc.edu Precedence: list X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.0.0 (2004-09-13) on kukui X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.6 required=4.5 tests=BAYES_00,NORMAL_HTTP_TO_IP autolearn=ham version=3.0.0 MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY AUGUST, 2004 Second Installment (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) NOTE: Due to the incredibly high level of tropical cyclone activity across the Northern Hemisphere during the month of August, I have decided to disseminate the August summary in four installments in order to expedite the storm reports and to present them in smaller, more digestible portions. The installments will be as follows (dates refer to storms which formed during the indicated time frame): Part One: August 1 - 9 (Sent 7 October) Part Two: August 10 - 16 (Sent 19 October) Part Three: August 17 - 23, plus Monthly Feature Part Four: August 24 - 31 ************************************************************************* SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't, I wanted to include them. After a couple of months, I will move this note to the ending section of the summary. (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information --------------------------------------- Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site: Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL: Links are also included to websites with further information about the U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air- craft Operations Center. (2) Archived Advisories ----------------------- All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at: Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL: I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but if I learn of any, I will add them to this list. (3) Satellite Imagery --------------------- Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen. I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list. ************************************************************************* AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS --> Destructive hurricane strikes southwestern Florida communities --> Large severe hurricane strikes Bahamas and southeastern Florida --> China struck by two typhoons--one very deadly --> Two intense typhoons pass through Marianas en route to Japan --> Typhoon grazes southeastern South Korea ************************************************************************* ***** Feature of the Month for August ***** NOTE!!! The Feature of the Month for August will be included in the third installment of the August summary. ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for August: 4 tropical storms 1 hurricane 3 intense hurricanes Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida: discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. An interesting article discussing the atmospheric circulation patterns which led to the incredibly active and destructive Atlantic hurricane season, as well as information on the effects of individual cyclones, can be found on CSU's atmospheric sciences website at the following URL: Atlantic Tropical Activity for August ------------------------------------- Following a stormless June and July, tropical cyclone activity exploded in August to produce the most active month of August on record. The average statistics for August (based on 1950-2003) are: 2.7 NS, 1.5 H, and 0.6 IH with an NTC of 24%. During August, 2004, a record eight tropical storms developed with four reaching hurricane intensity. Three of the hurricanes became intense hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale), and the NTC for August was a staggering 84%. And all of the cyclones except Hurricane Danielle had an impact on land. Hurricane Alex passed a scant 10 miles off Cape Hatteras while a Category 2 hurricane, and later reached Category 3 status north of the 38th parallel while moving northeastward over the warm Gulf Stream waters south of the Canadian Maritimes. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near St. Marks, FL, while Hurricane Charley was gathering steam in the Caribbean. Charley struck western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, weakened slightly after crossing the island, then rapidly intensified into a strong Category 4 hurricane before making landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, FL. The storm crossed the Peninsula, maintaining hurricane intensity, and exited near Jacksonville. Charley continued north-northeastward and made a second U. S. landfall in South Carolina. Hurricane Danielle formed in mid-month near the Cape Verdes but moved northward over the eastern Atlantic, becoming an impressive Category 2 hurricane. Tropical Storm Earl formed at the same time as Danielle and moved through the southern Windwards as a tropical storm, but lost its circulation and was downgraded to a tropical wave in the southeastern Caribbean. Earl's remnants continued westward, reaching the Eastern Pacific several days later and ultimately redeveloping into Hurricane Frank. Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine were twins forming late in the month along an old frontal boundary stretching eastward into the Atlantic from the southeastern U. S. coast. Gaston formed near the coast and struck South Carolina as a strong tropical storm near hurri- cane intensity. Hermine formed from another LOW along the same frontal trough west of Bermuda and moved northward, eventually reaching south- eastern Massachusetts as a weak tropical storm. Mighty Hurricane Frances formed on 25 August about midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Frances moved relentlessly on a west- northwesterly track which carried it north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico as it became a large, severe Category 4 hurricane. Frances slashed its way through the Bahamas, gradually weakening to Category 2 levels during the process. The storm made landfall in southeastern Florida as a very large, slow-moving Category 2 hurricane--not "major" by Saffir/Simpson standards, but still causing major damage as it crossed the Peninsula. Frances emerged into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and made a final landfall as a tropical storm near St. Marks, FL. A strong tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa very late in August and passed through the Cape Verde Islands on the 31st. The system was quite well-organized at one point, and SAB assigned a Dvorak classification of T2.5/2.5 at 31/1800 UTC. However, the convection quickly began to diminish and the system was not classified as a tropical depression at the time. The weak LOW persisted, however, and over a week later, on 9 September, was briefly upgraded to tropical depression status. (This system will be mentioned in the September summary.) Reports on all the August tropical storms and hurricanes will be issued according to the schedule below. A special thanks to Kevin Boyle for writing some of the Atlantic cyclone reports. Part 1 - Alex, Bonnie Part 2 - Charley, Danielle, Earl Part 3 - none Part 4 - Frances, Gaston, Hermine HURRICANE CHARLEY (TC-03) 9 - 16 August ------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- A tropical wave moved off the western coast of Africa on 4 August. The system moved rapidly westward with little sign of development until the 8th, when it was located some 750 nm east of the Windward Islands. Even then, associated thunderstorm activity was not well-organized. On the early morning of the 9th the wave was located about 130 nm east of the Windwards, moving west-northwestward at 22 kts with no signs of tropical cyclone formation. However, later on during the morning showers and thunderstorms became much better organized and surface pressures had fallen significantly over the islands. A Special Tropical Disturbance Statement was issued at 1345 UTC which noted that Barbados had reported wind gusts to 46 kts during the previous couple of hours. Subsequent surface observations from Trinidad and Margarita showed west-southwest and west-northwest winds, respectively, of about 10 kts, establishing the fact that a surface circulation existed. Hence, advisories were initiated at 1745 UTC on Tropical Depression 03, located about 45 nm southeast of Grenada and moving westward at 19 kts. Visible satellite imagery depicted a very well-organized system with distinct banding features. TD-03 was forecast to intensify to hurricane intensity in 72 hours. B. Synoptic History ------------------- TD-03 faired rather well as it traversed the typically unfavorable southeastern Caribbean Sea. During the evening banding appeared less impressive than earlier, but new convection formed near the center of circulation. At 0900 UTC on 10 August the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley, located about 390 nm south-southeast of Santo Domingo and moving west-northwestward at 21 kts. The cyclone had become better organized overnight, and even though outer bands of deep convection were currently minimal, the circulation occupied a large envelope and outflow was excellent in all directions. Dvorak classi- fications from all agencies were T2.5. As the day progressed Charley slowly became better organized, and the first U. S. Air Force Reserves reconnaissance flight into the storm, around 2000 UTC, found a tight center with a CP of 999 mb and peak FLWs of 72 kts just to the northeast of the center. Based on the aircraft data and a CI estimate of 55 kts from TAFB, Charley's MSW was increased to 55 kts at 11/0300 UTC. The storm was still moving rapidly west-northwestward from a position about 260 nm east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The reconnaissance mission into the storm around 11/0600 UTC found that the CP had dropped to 995 mb with a closed eyewall present. A flight around midday found peak FLWs of 80 kts at 850 mb; hence, Charley was upgraded to the season's second hurricane at 1800 UTC when located approximately 80 nm south of Kingston, Jamaica. The young hurricane was moving west-northwestward at the slightly slower pace of 16 kts. During the evening Charley was sporting a small, closed eyewall of only 8 nm as it began to turn slightly more toward the northwest. The storm continued to strengthen during the night--winds were upped to 75 kts at 12/0600 UTC. An upper-level LOW to the west had been inhibiting outflow in that sector, but this feature began retreating westward away from the cyclone, leading to a lessening of shear and improved outflow. By 1500 UTC Charley was moving northwestward at 15 kts, and the track gradually became more north-northwesterly as the day progressed. In an inter- mediate advisory at 1800 UTC, Charley's MSW was upped to 90 kts, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The hurricane was then located about 165 nm south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. This upgrade was based on a peak FLW of 105 kts and a 92-kt dropsonde surface wind. The CP was only down to 980 mb, but the storm was moving into a region of higher-than-average surface pressures, implying that the usual pressure/wind relationship might not be valid. At 13/0300 UTC Hurricane Charley was moving north-northwestward toward the southern coast of Cuba, being located between the Isle of Youth and the Cuban mainland about 45 nm south of Havana. By 0600 UTC the hurri- cane had almost crossed the island and was situated only 22 km west of downtown Havana. Even though operationally Charley was a Category 2 hurricane when it reached Cuba, meteorological observations from the island indicate that the hurricane had reached intense hurricane status, or Category 3 on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The maximum 1-min avg wind recorded in Cuba was 103 kts with a minimum SLP of 966 mb. A storm surge of 3.7 m was measured in Playa Cajio along the southern coast of Havana Province. (More of the Cuban observations follow in Section C.) Reconnaissance observations revealed that Charley did not weaken very much at all after crossing Cuba. Shortly after the eye had cleared the northern coast, a plane found a CP of 970 mb with peak 700-mb winds of 104 kts. Also, Key West radar showed Doppler winds higher than 100 kts. The MSW was upped to 95 kts at 0900 UTC. Things began to happen very rapidly and dramatically during the morning of Friday, 13 August. An eyewall dropsonde around 13/1200 UTC indicated that the MSW was still near 95 kts, but the CP had dropped 5 mb to 965 mb between 1200 and 1400 UTC. By 1500 UTC Charley's motion had become northerly at 16 kts, and two hours later the storm was moving north-northeastward at 18 kts. The 1700 UTC intermediate advisory upgraded Charley to a Category 3 hurricane with 110-kt winds, located about 60 nm south-southwest of Ft. Myers, FL. At about the same time, a reconnaissance aircraft found that the pressure had fallen further to 954 mb and measured a peak FLW of 141 kts. On this basis, a special advisory was issued at 1800 UTC upgrading Charley to a Category 4 hurricane with a MSW of 125 kts. Charley's pressure continued to fall, and the final reconnaissance fix at 1956 UTC, just before the eye reached the coast, found a CP of 941 mb and a peak FLW of 148 kts. The eye of Charley moved inland near Cayo Costa around 2000 UTC. The operational MSW at the time of landfall was 125 kts, and this value has been widely reported in the media as the landfall intensity. However, the 13/2100 UTC NHC discussion bulletin noted that the FLW of 148 kts corresponds to a surface MSW of 130 kts, and I have learned from a reliable source that in all probability Charley's official landfall intensity will be 130 kts. An unofficial gust of 110 kts was recorded near Punta Gorda along with a 943.6 mb surface pressure. Charley began weakening as it moved quickly north- northeastward across the Florida Peninsula. At 2300 UTC the center was about 100 km south-southwest of Orlando with the MSW estimated at 100 kts, and by 14/0300 UTC had passed very near that city and was nearing the Atlantic coast near Daytona Beach. The estimated MSW had decreased to 75 kts by this time, based on surface and WSR-88D Doppler wind data. By 0600 UTC on 14 August the center of Hurricane Charley had emerged into the Atlantic just off the Florida coast and was located about 165 nm south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. A reconnaissance plane found peak FLWs of 88 kts in the eastern quadrant with a CP of 994 mb, so the MSW remained at 75 kts in the 14/0900 UTC advisory. By 1200 UTC the storm was located about 30 nm south-southeast of Charleston and was racing to the north-northeast at 25 kts. At 1500 UTC radar and surface observations indicated that the center of Charley was on the coast near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with the CP down to 989 mb. The MSW by this time had dropped to 65 kts, and the former Category 4 hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm three hours later when located over eastern North Carolina about 55 km north of Wilmington. Wrightsville Beach reported a sustained wind of 61 kts at 1736 UTC, so the MSW was held at 60 kts for the 2100 UTC advisory. At 15/0000 UTC the center of Tropical Storm Charley was located just east of Virginia Beach, Virginia, and racing northeastward at 29 kts. Winds had decreased to near 45 kts and the storm was beginning to lose tropical characteristics. By 15/0600 UTC Charley was passing about 35 nm east of Atlantic City, New Jersey, with peak winds of only minimal tropical storm intensity. Charley made a final landfall around 0900 UTC on Long Island near the town of Farmingville, and by 1200 UTC was located in the vicinity of Boston. The final TPC/NHC advisory on Charley was issued at 15/1500 UTC with the system located east of Cape Cod and still moving quickly northeastward. The extratropical remnant was forecast to lose its identity in a frontal zone, and apparently this happened, as OPC made its final reference to the post-Charley system at 16/0000 UTC. Hurricane Charley's recurvature at a fairly low latitude in the Gulf of Mexico was more typical of a late September or October hurricane. The rather unusual track was due to an unseasonably strong shortwave trough moving into the southeastern U. S. This same trough had recurved Tropical Storm Bonnie into the eastern Florida Panhandle the day before Charley savagely struck the Charlotte Harbor communities. Charley was the first of four destructive hurricanes to strike the state of Florida during the historic 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first of three to bring hurricane-force winds to many of the inland counties located on the Peninsula. Hurricane Charley was also the first major hurricane to strike the Charlotte Harbor since at least 1944. Following is a list of the stronger hurricanes to strike this area of Florida since 1871, and none appears to have been anywhere near as intense as Charley: (1) Oct, 1873 - A major hurricane made landfall in the Charlotte Harbor area, destroying Punta Rassa (this from ATLANTIC HURRICANES by Dunn and Miller). The reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of about 100 kts and a SLP of 959 mb at landfall. Records indicate that the surge reached a height of 4.3 metres. (2) Sep, 1894 - A Category 2 hurricane with winds of 90 kts made landfall in the Charlotte Harbor area. (3) Oct, 1910 - The famous "loop" hurricane made landfall a little to the south of Port Charlotte and to the north of Fort Myers. The reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of 105 kts at landfall. (4) Oct, 1944 - The final hurricane of 1944 made landfall between the Charlotte Harbor area and Tampa. Based on the old Best Track file (the ongoing reanalysis has not yet reached 1944) the MSW appears to have been about 105 kts. It is interesting to note that all the major hurricanes affecting this region occurred after the first of October except for Hurricane Charley, which illustrates the fact that Charley's track was most unusual for a mid-August hurricane. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ (1) Cuba -------- As Charley crossed Cuba hurricane-force winds extended about 13 nm to the right of the center and 10 nm to the left of the track--a very small hurricane indeed. As noted above, the strongest wind measured on the island during Charley's passage was a 1-min avg sustained wind of 103 kts at the Vaisala meteorological station located at the airport in Playa Baracoa, just west of Havana City, and just inside the eastern eyewall. The station measured peak gusts of 130 kts and a minimum SLP of 974 mb. Another Vaisala station at San Antonio de los Banos measured a maximum 1-min avg wind of 97 kts, gusting to 115 kts, before the sensors were blown away. The station in Guira de Melena, also in the eastern eyewall, reported a MSW of 92 kts, peak gusts of 116 kts, and a minimum SLP of 971.6 mb. The minimum SLP of 966 mb mentioned earlier was estimated, based on a consideration of the available data and the distance of the various stations from the center of the eye. Charley was a rather dry hurricane in Cuba--rainfall amounts of 100 to 150 mm were reported only in restricted areas near the path of the eye. Eyewitnesses (no pun intended) reported that the stars could be clearly seen during the passage of Charley's eye, and there were some reports of a reddish-like appearance of the sky within the eye. A storm surge of 3.7 m above MSL was observed in Playa Cajio, where 360 houses were simply swept away. The ocean spread up to 2.6 km inland at that point, and penetrated 1.5 km inland at Surgidero de Batabano, where the surge height was 2.8 m. (The information in this section comes from an excellent Preliminary Report on Hurricane Charley in Cuba prepared by Dr. Jose Rubiera, Dr. Maritza Ballester and Dr. Cecilia Gonzalez, National Forecasting Center, Instituto de Meteorologia, Cuba.) (2) Reconnaissance Aircraft --------------------------- A few comments from Rich Henning, a member of the U. S. Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron: "In the case of Charley, the MSLP hung around 970 mb all night (with a 700-mb core temperature of only 12-14 C), then it dropped 29 mb (with a 10-mb drop in about 90 minutes) as the 700-mb core temperature spiked up to 20 C and the eye contracted to 5 miles. The 13/1930 UTC fix included an astonishing description of 138-kt winds ONE MILE southeast of the eye center." Charley provided a fascinating case study of meso- scale core processes gone amok. As noted above, the lowest CP and peak FLW measured by reconnaissance aircraft was 941 mb and 148 kts, respectively, at 13/1956 UTC--shortly before Charley's eye made landfall in Florida. (3) Florida ----------- As noted above, one of the NHC advisories alluded to an unofficial gust (estimated) of 110 kts along with a 943.6 mb SLP measured at Punta Gorda. Storm chaser Mike Theiss was in the Charlotte Harbor area during the passage of the eye (which lasted only 5 minutes) and recorded a minimum pressure of 944 mb. Peak gusts of 90 kts and 95 kts were estimated at Arcadia and Wauchula, respectively, by Emergency Management personnel. The peak gust recorded by a NWS station was 97 kts at Punta Gorda at 13/2035 UTC. The following table contains reports of sustained winds (2-min avg) exceeding storm force (48 kts): County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Osceola Kissimmee ??? 53 14 / 0035 Orange Orlando 160 67 14 / 0105 Orange Orlando 130 57 14 / 0129 Seminole Sanford 120 63 14 / 0210 Volusia Daytona Beach 200 48 14 / 0353 Volusia Ormond Beach 100 59 14 / 0315 The following table contains reports of peak gusts exceeding hurricane force (64 kts): County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Osceola Kissimmee ??? 65 14 / 0035 Orange Orlando 160 91 14 / 0105 Orange Orlando 120 74 14 / 0129 Seminole Sanford 120 80 14 / 0210 Volusia Daytona Beach 200 72 14 / 0353 Volusia Ormond Beach 100 75 14 / 0315 Note: The above values represent the highest found. Many of the ASOS sites failed during the height of the hurricane. Two NASA wind towers near Cape Canaveral at 16.5 m above ground level reported sustained winds or 53 kts and 56 kts with both reporting peak gusts of 75 kts. The Wind Shear Alert System (33.5-45.7 m above ground level) at Daytona Beach International Airport reported a maximum gust of 84 kts. As Hurricane Charley passed through Florida rather quickly, rainfall amounts were not particularly impressive. The highest storm total amount was 141 mm at Sanford in Seminole County, recorded between 12/1200 and 14/1200 UTC. Kissimmee recorded 132 mm during the same 48-hour period. Apopka in Orange County recorded a 24-hour total of 102 mm between 13/0400 and 14/0400 UTC. Estimates place the magnitude of the peak storm surge at 4-5 metres. More meteorological observations can be found at the following links: D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ (1) Cuba -------- There was a lot of damage reported to housing, crops, trees, power and telephone lines and overall infrastructure in the western portion of Havana Province, in the west of Havana City and the eastern part of Pinar del Rio. However, only four fatalities were reported from this major Category 3 hurricane, the first of such an intensity to strike Havana Province since 1948. Very severe damage was sustained by agriculture. Hundreds of hectares of banana plantations were destroyed by the winds. Even edible root plantations, such as yucca, were heavily damaged. Citrus plantations were stripped of fruit, and tens of thousands of mango, guava and avocado trees were also blown down and the fruit lost. Reports indicate that some 40,500 homes were heavily damaged and 8300 houses totally destroyed. In addition to the four fatalities reported in Cuba, one death was attributed to the hurricane in Jamaica. (2) Florida ----------- Hurricane Charley was the second most destructive hurricane ever to strike the state of Florida, the most destructive being Category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The most concentrated destruction was in the communities of Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte in the Charlotte Harbor area of southwest Florida. Total dollar estimates of insured losses range from around $7.5 to $11 billion, with total damages likely to exceed $15 billion. In the Charlotte Harbor area, approximately 10,000 homes were destroyed with another 16,000 severely damaged. Many of these were no doubt mobile homes, which are not designed to withstand the extreme winds encountered in intense tropical cyclones. On the day after the passage of Charley an estimated 1.3 million persons were without electrical power. One source estimated the number of persons initially without power at 2 million. An estimated 1.4 million people evacuated their homes prior to the approach of Hurricane Charley. Some 2300 stayed in local shelters. A close call came at Arcadia, about 20 miles inland, where one wall collapsed at a civic center which was being utilized as an evacuation shelter for some 1200 people. Very fortunately, only one person was injured as a result of the incident and her injuries were minor. Charley's winds played havoc with small aircraft at the Charlotte Airport with many planes ripped apart by the fierce winds. An observer reported seeing one small plane flying down the runway as if were about to take off. The U. S. Labor Department reported that new applications for unemployment insurance increased by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 343,000 for the week ending 21 August. Half of this 10,000 rise was attributed to claims stemming from Hurricane Charley. Hurricane Charley was directly responsible for nine deaths in Florida with 16 more indirectly attributable to the storm. Most of the indirect deaths occurred post-storm and were due to things like electrocution, heart problems, carbon monoxide poisoning, automobile accidents, and heat strokes. One man died when he fell from a tree, and another died when a tree fell on him. Many post-storm injuries were reported due to things like stepping on nails, tripping over debris, chainsaw accidents, auto- mobile accidents at intersections where traffic lights were inoperative, bruises, cut and strains. Hurricane-related stress also caused an increase in heart attacks and respiratory problems, and many people became ill with diarrhea and vomiting after drinking contaminated tap water. (3) Carolinas and Northward --------------------------- The Property Claims Service reports that insured damages due to Charley were estimated at $25 million in North Carolina and $20 million in South Carolina. In the state of Rhode Island, one death was reported as a direct casualty of Hurricane Charley. (4) Additional Information -------------------------- More information on storm damage can be found in the reports prepared by the Tampa and Melbourne NWS offices referenced in Section C.3 above. In addition, many articles dealing with the impact of Hurricane Charley and subsequent storms may be found at the following URL: Following are some links supplied by John Wallace which contain additional information on the impact of Hurricane Charley: E. Storm Chaser Reports ----------------------- Following are short write-ups sent by storm chasers Mike Theiss and Jim Leonard, who were eyewitnesses to Charley's fury in the Charlotte Harbor area. (1) Mike Theiss --------------- "I documented Hurricane Charley at Charlotte Harbor and never imagined this storm would turn out to be like this. I had a window blown out from a piece of a flying roof, a large telephone pole with a big transformer landed behind my truck, and I had debris slamming against my car during the real intense eyewall which lasted for about 20 minutes. All I can say is "UNREAL". I had heard reports of this storm intensifying, but I had no idea it got as strong as it did. I recorded a pressure of 944 mb and was in "Awe" in the eye of this beast. The core was very small and tight and I was in the eye for around 5 minutes. The damage in the area I was in reminded me of Andrew's aftermath, but in a smaller area. I observed concrete structures blown apart, every building at least de-roofed, trees snapped in half, and large billboard signs with only the poles left twisted beyond belief. I drove a few miles down the road and the damage was bad, but nowhere near the devastation in Charlotte Harbor. I haven't seen any radar loops yet of it making landfall and can't wait. I will post pics in a few days. I have to focus on getting my truck in the shop to get repaired." More pictures and video clips may be found at Mike's website: (2) Jim Leonard --------------- "First of all, many thanks to Eric Blake for his frequent radar updates during the entire afternoon of the chase. We started the morning at a friend's house at Cape Coral, a suburb of Ft. Myers. By late morning I noticed the eye of the hurricane began to show a slight NNE heading, so the plan to head up to Sarasota was adjusted southward. As we headed over the bridge from Cape Coral to the city of Ft. Myers, I saw a long rainfree cloud base approaching from the south. I turned the van around and went back to the bridge to get in a better position. The cloud line moved over our position without doing anything when all of a sudden overhead and to the NE I noticed rapid scud motion which I figured would lead to a potential tornado. At that moment I saw a large spray ring on the bay about a half mile to the northeast. We could only see this for a few seconds as there were too many trees in the way. Then a heavy rain over us occurred and obscured the vortex. Once the rain let up the cloud base circulation moved NW. At that time I saw rapidly circulating scud tags for a couple minutes more before losing sight of it. "As the afternoon wore on we drove north and south between Ft. Myers and North Port like a yo-yo as the center of the hurricane wobbled NNE. An average-sized eyewall would have been much easier to place ourselves in its track. As this storm was so small in size you had to be really accurate to get in its path. Also, we had to find the safest structure and have the best tree scenes during the strongest winds. We ended up in the ground-level parking garage of a hospital between Port Charlotte and Charlotte Harbor. While searching for our spot the winds were averaging 40 to 50 kts in gusts when a sudden gust of 70 kts occurred. We had to take cover fast! A second gust probably 60 kts or so occurred as a tree branch blasted out my left rear window of the van--this while video was rolling, great audio! Minutes later we positioned ourselves in the parking garage as all hell broke loose! "The core of this hurricane was so small and its forward movement so rapid that the winds increased amazingly fast. We were probably in an area of better constructed buildings as just a few blocks either side of us damage to structures was much worse. During the first half winds in my estimation were in the 120 to 130 mph range. There were many sections of roofing material flying around and I filmed the roof of a bank as it came off in pieces across the parking lot from us. The wind speed dropped off dramatically as the northern portion of the eye moved across--this took about two or three minutes--when all of a sudden the winds shifted to the NNE, then eventually north with the rain really blinding at this time. I estimated the gusts at the height of this part as high as 135 to 140 mph. The strongest winds on the back side lasted about 15 to 20 minutes. It was like going through a 15-mile-wide tornado! About 30 minutes later we began a brief damage survey before we headed back home. I noticed how the intense damage was definitely in streaks, which is typical in rapidly deepening hurricanes. The eyewall was characterized by very turbulent gusts, which is a common occurrence when the eyewall convection is very intense. This would account for the streaks of intense damage. This was first noted in Hurricane Celia in August, 1970, in Corpus Christi, Texas, a storm with a similar central pressure and storm size at landfall." More information may be available on Jim's website: (Report written by Gary Padgett) HURRICANE DANIELLE (TC-04) 13 - 21 August -------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- A strong and well-organized tropical wave, possibly already at tropical depression intensity, left the African coast on 12 August and was first mentioned in NHC/TPC's Tropical Weather Outlook at 2230 UTC later that day. The wave was accompanied by a broad LOW, and moving in a westerly direction, was centred around 260 nm southeast of the Cape Verde Islands by early the next morning. The disturbance proceeded to develop quickly and was soon upgraded to Tropical Depression Four at 13/1500 UTC. The system was designated Tropical Storm Danielle at 14/0300 UTC while passing south of the Cape Verde Islands. Danielle's MSW may have reached 35 kts six hours earlier, but the forecaster chose to wait until satellite CI estimates from TAFB and SAB had both reached a consensus of 2.5. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Storm Danielle was heading westward through a low shear environment and warm SSTs southeast of a mid-level ridge. These conditions encouraged gradual strengthening during the 14th. Banding features became better defined over the southern semicircle before beginning to wrap around the centre at 2100 UTC on 14 August. The MSW had risen to 55 kts by this time, and a 14/2247 UTC SSM/I microwave pass detected a developing eye. Danielle intensified into the first Cape Verde hurricane of the year at 15/0300 UTC when the MSW reached 65 kts and CI estimates reached 4.0. Continued strengthening on the 15th brought the sustained winds up to 85 kts by 2100 UTC. Just prior to this, the wind field surrounding Hurricane Danielle was reduced after a 15/2016 UTC QuikScat pass had indicated a smaller wind radii than previously analyzed. After this amendment, hurricane-force winds extended 20 nm from the centre while gales reached out as far as 90 nm in the southeastern quadrant. Danielle's track gradually curved towards the northwest on the 16th as a large area of troughing began to develop over the western Atlantic. The hurricane was looking healthy on infrared satellite images with a circular CDO punctured by a small eye, and good outflow was present in all quadrants. Danielle arrived at its peak strength of 90 kts at 16/0300 UTC, and this intensity held constant for the rest of the day. A single enhanced BD curve infrared image at 16/1800 UTC suggested a stronger system with CI estimates of 5.5., so for a short time Danielle's MSW could possibly have reached 100 kts. (It will be interesting to see if the winds are upped any during post-storm analysis.) By 16/2100 UTC Hurricane Danielle had turned north-northwestwards with its CDO less symmetrical than earlier in the day, a sign that the environment was becoming more hostile. The 10-nm eye persisted through the night, but this feature had faded somewhat by 17/0300 UTC. However, it continued to make intermittent appearances throughout the day. Veering northwards, Danielle remained a 90-kt hurricane until 17/2100 UTC when the MSW started to drop off. The intensity dropped a little further at 0300 UTC on 18 August as Hurricane Danielle tracked northward. The partially-exposed LLCC had become difficult to locate by this time as a result of southwesterly shear and dry air intrusion, but both microwave imagery and a 17/2100 UTC QuikScat pass indicated that the centre was located southwest of the deep convection. The cyclone began to weaken more rapidly and was barely at hurricane strength at 18/0900 UTC. It was downgraded to a 55-kt tropical storm six hours later as it turned towards the north- northeast and began to decelerate. At 18/2100 UTC the centre of Danielle passed near a drifting buoy which measured a CP of 1008.6 mb. Despite the shear Danielle continued to generate bursts of convection on the 19th, mainly to the northeast of the LLCC. The storm was about to perform a rather jagged hairpin turn over the next few days within a low to mid-level ridge, south of a passing short- wave trough, and east of a strong mid to upper-level LOW near 33N/45W. The hurricane was being steered in the flow between the mid to upper- level LOW and the subtropical ridge. Danielle headed northeastward, then eastward and finally wound up stationary at 19/2100 UTC. For the next day or two Danielle was expected to meander in the same general area. This was a completely different scenario to what some of the forecast models had been initially forecasting. Danielle was originally predicted to undergo extratropical transition and pass through the Azores island chain. Instead, a HIGH built in the vicinity of the Azores and blocked the cyclone's path in that direction. In defiance of hostile upper-level shear and high surface pressures, sporadic bursts of deep convection continued to fire up northeast of the well-defined centre. Danielle was maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for the majority of the 20th. It was downgraded to a tropical depression at 2100 UTC when most or all of the convective activity had subsided and only the LLCC remained. Movement continued to be very slow and erratic but eventually a northwesterly crawl became established late on the 20th. This heading persisted into the 21st before Danielle assumed a more westerly track. The system was dropped by NHC at 21/1500 UTC when the final advisory was issued. The depression was then located a little over 740 nm west-southwest of Azores. The remnant circulation crept slowly westwards until the 22nd when movement became virtually static. As the ex-hurricane started to drift slowly north on the 23rd, convection redeveloped near to and east of the center, and the 23/1502 UTC STWO mentioned the possibility that Danielle could regenerate back into a tropical depression. However, deep convection soon diminished and conditions started to become more unfavourable for redevelopment. The LOW continued north to northwest at a quicker pace on the 24th. Finally, whatever was left of Danielle was gradually incorporated into the warm sector of a mid-latitude LOW on the 25th. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known as a result of Hurricane Danielle. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) TROPICAL STORM EARL (TC-05) 13 - 16 August --------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- The tropical wave that became Tropical Storm Earl exited the coast of Africa around 6 August. It was at first a rather dull, uninteresting feature as it tracked its way westwards across the tropical Atlantic. The wave was initially mentioned in NHC/TPC's STWO at 1130 UTC on 12 August when it was centred about 1100 nm east of the Windward Islands. A slow development potential was noted in this statement. The disturbance gradually became a little better organized through the 12th and 13th. As environmental conditions appeared to be favourable for cyclogenesis, the 13/1630 UTC STWO warned that a tropical depression could form within a day or two and that interests in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the system over the next few days. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Depression Five formed at 2100 UTC on the 13th roughly 910 nm or so east-southeast of the Windward Islands in an area historically hostile for tropical cyclone development. However, it was this same general area that had spawned Hurricane Charley only a few days before. TD-05 was moving rather quickly westwards--perhaps too fast for its own good--through a favourable environment, so further strengthening seemed likely. However, it took another 24 hours for the depression to reach tropical storm status. TD-05 was named Earl at 14/2100 UTC, by which time its rapid forward speed of around 20 kts had taken it to within nearly 350 nm southeast of Barbados. In response to the upgrade, the governments of the Windward Islands each issued a tropical storm warning. Tropical Storm Earl's motion was controlled by the steering flow provided by a strong mid-level ridge to its north, and this feature was forecast to persist and continue driving the tropical cyclone smartly westwards for the rest of its short Caribbean cruise. Some models gave the U. S. a fright by suggesting that in the long- term Earl could recurve northwards as a Category 2 hurricane towards the Gulf Coast or even Florida. Thankfully, this scenario failed to materialize, especially so soon after Charley's devastating landfall in Florida. Even though the overall cloud pattern appeared slightly elongated on the morning of the 15th, deep convection increased significantly near the centre and there was a little strengthening. Satellite intensity estimates had reached T3.0, but because banding features were barely discernible, the MSW was increased to only 40 kts, which turned out to be the maximum intensity of Earl. While Earl's satellite representation at 15/1500 UTC showed an organized system with impressive outflow channels, the Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl struggled to find a well-defined closed LLCC. Meanwhile, the system was bombing through the Windward Islands and passed just south of Grenada at around 15/1800 UTC before entering the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Earl deteriorated dramatically overnight, and by the next morning convection had weakened markedly and the impressive outflow pattern that the system possessed earlier had been replaced by a uniform easterly flow. In fact, QuikScat data revealed that Earl had degenerated to the extent that it resembled an open wave. The government of Venezuela refused to allow aircraft into their airspace for reconnaissance purposes so NHC decided to continue advisories for a little while longer, especially as Earl was in close proximity to land. Microwave and QuikScat imagery indicated that the poorly-defined centre or wave axis was racing ahead of the convection. The MSW was kept at 40 kts despite T-numbers having dropped to 2.0 (30 kts), and this was due to a burst of deep convection near the alleged centre. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reached the storm the next morning and was unable to find any sign of a closed circulation associated with Earl. A Quik- Scat pass also failed to locate the LLCC. On this basis, NHC downgraded Earl to an open wave with 35-kt winds and issued the final advisory at 16/1500 UTC. The wave continued to generate winds of tropical storm force as it passed south of Jamaica. Models continued to indicate the possibility that the remnant of Earl could re-instate itself as a tropical cyclone and reach hurricane strength as it tracked westward through the Caribbean. However, a planned follow-up reconnaissance flight to investigate the tropical wave on the 17th was cancelled since the system failed to show any signs of re-organization. Continuing its journey westwards, the remnants of Earl moved inland over Honduras/ northern Nicaragua later that same day, ultimately re-emerging over Eastern Pacific waters around 18 or 19 August and redeveloping as Hurricane Frank. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ According to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency, damages on Grenada were minor and amounted to no more than broken branches, a few fallen trees, and downed power lines. Ten houses had their roofs blown off while one home suffered partial roof damage. There were reports of flooding in the St. George parish area of Grenada, and the Point Saline International airport was closed for a short time. There were no reports of injuries or casualties. Also, there were no reports of casualties or damages from any of the other Windward Islands due to Tropical Storm Earl. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for August: 1 tropical depression 3 tropical storms ** 1 hurricane ** - one of these storms (Howard) became a hurricane and intense hurricane in early September Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for August ---------------------------------------------- Tropical cyclone activity was near normal in the Eastern North Pacific during August. August averages for the period 1971-2003 are about 4 NS, 2 H, and one IH. August, 2004, produced four NS but only one hurricane; however, the final storm, Howard, became a Category 4 hurricane during the early days of September. Estelle formed rather far west from the same tropical wave which had earlier spawned Atlantic Hurricane Charley and moved into the Central North Pacific. The other three storms formed much nearer the Mexican coast but moved generally northwestward away from the mainland with only minimal effects felt along the coastline. Reports on all the August tropical storms and hurricanes will be issued according to the schedule below. A special thanks to John Wallace and Kevin Boyle for writing most of the NEP cyclone reports. Part 1 - none Part 2 - none Part 3 - Estelle, Frank (including TD-09E) Part 4 - Georgette, Howard ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for August: 4 tropical depressions ** 3 tropical storms ++ 4 typhoons 2 super typhoons ** - all of these were classified as tropical depressions by JMA only ++ - one of these (Malou/15W) was classified as a tropical storm by several of the Asian TCWCs, but not by JTWC, while another (21W) was classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for August ---------------------------------------------- After a rather quiet July, which had come on the heels of a very active June, the tropics of the Western North Pacific exploded to produce a very active August. I do not yet have monthly statistics available for the NWP basin, but if August, 2004, was not the most active August on record there, it certainly must rank in the Top Five. Nine systems reached tropical storm intensity, taking into account the classifications from all the warning agencies. Six of these reached typhoon intensity and two became super typhoons per JTWC's analysis. All but one of the six typhoons struck populated areas in the NWP basin: Meranti - remained at sea Rananim - China Megi - South Korea Chaba - Marianas, Japan Aere - Taiwan, China Songda - Marianas, Okinawa, Japan Four systems were mentioned as tropical depressions in the High Seas bulletins issued by JMA. The first of these was carried as a 30-kt depression on 6 and 7 August. At 06/0600 UTC it was located roughly 600 nm east-southeast of Iwo Jima. The system moved generally in a northeasterly direction and had weakened by 1200 UTC on the 7th, being then located about 600 nm west-northwest of Wake Island. JTWC did carry this system in their STWOs, and at one point assigned a fair potential for development. A track, based on JMA's bulletins, was included for this system in the companion August cyclone tracks file. The remaining three JMA depressions were listed only in the Summary portion of the High Seas bulletins. One weak circulation was located in the vicinity of 20N/141E on 8 August and remained quasi-stationary. Another depression, near 18N/133E, was mentioned only once, at 13/1200 UTC. The final of the three occurred on 27 and 28 August, being quasi- stationary just west of the International Dateline near 10N/178E. JTWC did give this system a fair development potential at one point. No tracks were included for any of these weaker JMA depressions in the August tracks file. Reports on all the August tropical storms and typhoons will be issued according to the schedule below. A special to Kevin Boyle for writing several of the NWP cyclone reports, and to Huang Chunliang for sending much information regarding meteorological observations as well as damage and casualty figures. Part 1 - Meranti, Malou, Rananim/Karen Part 2 - Malakas, Megi/Lawin Part 3 - Chaba, Aere/Marce Part 4 - 21W, Songda/Nina TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (TC-17W / TS 0414) 10 - 13 August ------------------------------------------ Malakas: contributed by the Philippines, means 'strong' or 'powerful' A. Storm Origins ---------------- During the second week of August a reverse-oriented monsoon trough extended from the Philippine Sea northeastward for hundreds of miles. Several weak circulations formed and died along the trough. One disturbed area with an exposed LLCC can be seen in satellite imagery around 22N/150E at 0600 UTC on 8 August. JMA began mentioning this system as a weak tropical depression at 09/1200 UTC, locating it near 23N/152E and moving slowly eastward. JTWC cashed in on the system at 0600 UTC on the 10th, locating the weak LLCC about 730 nm west-northwest of Wake Island. Convection associated with the partially-exposed LLCC was primarily located to the west of the center, and a 200-mb analysis indicated moderate diffluence aloft and weak vertical shear. The development potential was initially assessed as poor. Also at 0600 UTC, JMA upped the MSW (10-min avg) to 30 kts. JTWC upgraded the potential for development to fair at 1700 UTC. The LLCC was then located about 670 nm west-northwest of Wake Island, moving northeastward at 11 kts. Deep convection was in a cycling mode, and animated water vapor imagery, enhanced infrared and micro- wave imagery indicated that the system was basically subtropical in nature. Nonetheless, JTWC initiated warnings on Tropical Depression 17W at 1800 UTC, and at the same time JMA upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Malakas. Satellite CI estimates at the time ranged from 25 to 35 kts. Malakas was located approximately 670 nm west- northwest of Wake Island, moving northeastward at 11 kts. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Storm Malakas tracked rapidly northeastward along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge throughout its existence. JTWC upgraded the system to tropical storm status at 0000 UTC on the 11th when it was located about 1300 nm west of Midway Island and moving northeastward at 22 kts. JTWC never estimated the MSW any higher than 35 kts, although the remarks in the JTWC warnings noted that some CI estimates were reaching 45 kts. At 11/1800 UTC water vapor imagery indicated that Malakas was becoming extratropical. JTWC issued their final warning on Tropical Storm Malakas at 0600 UTC on 12 August, placing the center approximately 960 nm west-northwest of Midway Island. Current intensity estimates ranged from 25 to 45 kts, but the system appeared very ragged and was declared extratropical. Both JMA's and NMCC's intensity estimates for Malakas were higher than JTWC's. JMA maintained the MSW (10-min avg) at 40 kts for more than 48 hours with the peak intensity of 45 kts reached at 11/1800 UTC for twelve hours. NMCC's peak estimated MSW (10-min avg) was 40 kts. Whereas JTWC declared Malakas extratropical at 12/0600 UTC, JMA kept the system alive as a tropical cyclone through 1200 UTC on 13 August as it continued to move generally northeastward across the North Pacific. JMA finally declared the system extratropical at 13/1800 UTC, placing the weak 25-kt LOW approximately 575 nm north-northwest of Midway Island. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from this short- lived marine cyclone. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TYPHOON MEGI (TC-18W / TY 0415 / LAWIN) 14 - 22 August ---------------------------------------------- Megi: contributed by South Korea, is the catfish--a large fish found mainly in rivers, lakes, etc and which has long whiskers around its mouth A. Introduction --------------- Typhoon Megi was the fourth of eight significant tropical cyclones to form during August. After Megi formed in the Northwest Pacific, JTWC issued warnings on tropical cyclones without a break through the rest of the month. Megi formed well to the east of the Philippines, moved north- westward through the Ryukyu island chain before recurving northeastward towards South Korea and Japan. Despite peaking at only minimal typhoon intensity, Megi had quite a significant impact on both these nations. B. Storm Origins ---------------- At 2200 UTC on 11 August an area of convection persisted approximately 260 nm west of Guam and was included in JTWC's STWO with the development potential being assessed as poor. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicated a possible LLCC in connection with this convection. An upper-level analysis showed moderate diffluence aloft and moderate wind shear over the area. The potential for develop- ment remained poor through the 12th and much of the 13th. At 13/0600 UTC the system was relocated to a position approximately 65 nm south of Guam, and then repositioned again at 13/2300 UTC to a point 60 nm to the north-northwest of Guam. A recent QuikScat pass indicated that the LLCC had consolidated significantly over the previous 12 hours with stronger winds within the deep convection. On this basis, a TCFA was issued at this time. The disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression 18W at 14/0000 UTC. C. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Depression 18W formed approximately 150 nm northwest of Guam and initially tracked west-northwestward at 8 kts under the influence of a mid-level steering ridge to its northeast. This heading persisted through the 14th while the forward speed accelerated. There was little change in intensity and deep convection had become less organized by 14/1800 UTC. At this time animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery suggested multiple LLCCs, meaning that the system resembled a monsoon depression. The system appeared to have become a little more consolidated by 15/0000 UTC, as depicted in satellite imagery, but remained at depression status through the 15th. At 0000 UTC on 16 August Tropical Depression 18W was centred 490 nm south-southeast of Okinawa and continuing on its westward journey at a slower pace of 7 kts. The storm still had not become any better consolidated at this time. However, both JTWC and JMA upgraded the system to a tropical storm and it was named Megi. From there, Megi strengthened slowly, reaching 45 kts at 16/1800 UTC after turning northwestward six hours earlier. This new heading was caused by Megi's reaching the end of the subtropical ridge at the same time an upper- level trough was moving eastward over eastern China. Tropical Storm Megi was accelerating north-northwestward at 0000 UTC on 17 August approximately 160 nm south of Okinawa. The upper-level trough began to enhance Megi's outflow and the storm responded by strengthening to 60 kts at 17/1800 UTC. Warnings issued by JTWC indicated that Megi passed 75 nm west of Okinawa at 17/1200 UTC with the island lying well within the radius of gale-force winds. Although the system was upgraded to typhoon intensity at 18/0000 UTC (by both JTWC and JMA) satellite images showed a distorted circulation as it became more involved with the upper-level trough. At this time Megi had reached its maximum intensity of 65 kts and this was to be maintained for the following 24 hours. The typhoon completed recurvature at 18/1200 UTC approximately 210 nm west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan. At 0000 UTC on 19 August Megi was downgraded to tropical storm status as it moved north-northeastward at a quickening pace approximately 620 nm west-southwest of Misawa, Japan. Extratropical transition was well underway as its circulation crossed the southern part of the Korean peninsula, northern Kyushu and then entered the Sea of Japan. From there Megi sped across northern Honshu before completing extratropical transition off the east coast of Hokkaido. Its rapid translational speed likely limited heavy rainfall to a degree over South Korea and Japan but allowed little time for the storm to significantly weaken. JTWC issued its final bulletin at 19/1200 UTC, but JMA continued to follow the storm through their bulletins. In fact, that agency retained typhoon intensity until 19/1800 UTC, at which time Megi was demoted to severe tropical storm status. The last mention of the system as a tropical cyclone was at 20/0600 UTC when it was located southeast of Hokkaido and moving eastward at 33 kts. The resulting extratropical storm continued moving rapidly eastward, reaching a point near 42N/174E by 22/0600 UTC when it was last referenced in JMA's High Seas Bulletins. The lowest CP estimated by JMA was 970 mb. This coincided with that agency's peak estimated intensity of 65-kts (10-min avg). During the time that Lawin (Filipino name for the system) was within PAGASA's AOR, the highest MSW estimated by that agency was 40 kts. The cyclone remained a tropical storm during the period it was within PAGASA's boundary lines, and thus was never upgraded to typhoon status. PAGASA began issuing warnings at 15/0900 UTC and ended warning coverage at 17/0600 UTC after Lawin had exited their AOR. NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW for Megi was also 65 kts. D. Meteorological Observations from Japan ----------------------------------------- The data in this section, and in the two following, was compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the information. NOTE: I have left all the wind observations in metres per second (mps). To convert to knots, divide the mps value by 0.51444. For a quickly obtained approximation, just double the mps value. An asterisk (*) preceding an entry denotes a record-breaking value for the relevant station. {Part I}. Landfall ================== According to the JMA warnings, Typhoon 0415 (MEGI) made landfall in Tsugaru Peninsula, Aomori Prefecture, around 19/2100 UTC with a MSW of 30 m/s and a CP of 975 hPa. {Part II}. Top-5 Storm Totals [16/1500-20/1500Z] ================================================ Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) ------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Ehime Tomisato 610 02 Kochi Hongawa 602 03 Miyazaki Mikado 487 04 Kochi Funato 445 05 Kochi Ikegawa 424 {Part III}. Top-5 Daily Rainfall Observations ============================================= Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Ehime Tomisato *398 [16/1500-17/1500Z] 02 Miyazaki Mikado 338 [16/1500-17/1500Z] 03 Kochi Ikegawa 297 [17/1500-18/1500Z] 04 Kochi Hongawa 289 [17/1500-18/1500Z] 05 Kochi Funato 273 [17/1500-18/1500Z] {Part IV}. Top-5 Hourly Rainfall Observations ============================================= Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Miyazaki Mikado 123 [17/1210-17/1310Z] 02 Kanagawa Hakone 96 [17/0840-17/0940Z] 03 Hyogo Sumoto 82 [17/0810-17/0910Z] 04 Ehime Tomisato 70 [17/0610-17/0710Z] 05 Kochi Hongawa 64 [17/0540-18/0640Z] {Part V}. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Observations ============================================================= Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Tobishima, Yamagata (JMA35002, Alt 58m) 34 /WSW [19/2000Z] 02 Erimomisaki, Hokkaido (JMA22391, Alt 63m) 28 /NE [20/0130Z] 03 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800, Alt 4m) *27.1/SSE [18/2050Z] 04 Nomozaki, Nagasaki (JMA84596, Alt 190m) 27 /SE [18/1600Z] 05 Ryotsu, Niigata (JMA54166, Alt 2m) *26 /SW [19/1740Z] {Part VI}. Top-5 Peak Gust Observations ======================================= Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800, Alt 4m) *48.7/SSE [18/2036Z] 02 Fukue, Nagasaki (WMO47843, Alt 25m) 41.2/S [18/1723Z] 03 Akita, Akita (WMO47582, Alt 6m) 41.1/SW [19/1839Z] 04 Sakata, Yamagata (WMO47587, Alt 3m) 39.9/SSW [19/1853Z] 05 Hachinohe, Aomori (WMO47581, Alt 27m) 39.2/SW [20/0006Z] {Part VII}. Top-5 SLP Observations ================================== Ranking Station Min SLP (hPa) --------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800) 974.1 [18/2112Z] 02 Fukaura, Aomori (WMOWMO47574) 978.7 [19/1939Z] 03 Kumejima, Okinawa (WMO47929) 980.7 [17/0937Z] 04 Aomori, Aomori (WMO47575) 981.3 [19/2104Z] 05 Hachinohe, Aomori (WMO47581) 982.5 [19/2328Z] {Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only) =============================================== http://www.data.kishou.go.jp http://www.osaka-jma.go.jp E. Meteorological Observations from Coastal Zhejiang, China ----------------------------------------------------------- 1. Significant gust observations from the western periphery of Typhoon Megi [Aug 17-18, locally] ====================================================================== Shulang Lake----30.6 m/s Langgang----27.7 m/s Haijiao----27.3 m/s Dongtou----26.8 m/s 2. Significant rainfall observations from the western periphery of Typhoon Megi [18/0000-19/0000Z] ================================================================== Dongtou----86.4 mm Yuhuan----62.9 mm Jinhua----59.2 mm F. Rainfall Observations from the Republic of Korea --------------------------------------------------- 17/1200-18/1200Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed) ================================================ WANDO (34.40N 126.70E 35m) 332.5 mm GWANGJU (35.17N 126.90E 74m) 305.5 mm ANDONG (36.57N 128.72E 141m) 210.0 mm JINDO RADAR (34.47N 126.32E 477m) 191.5 mm MOKPO (34.82N 126.38E 39m) 177.0 mm JEONJU (35.82N 127.15E 55m) 171.5 mm JEJU (33.52N 126.53E 23m) 139.5 mm JEJU UPPER/RADAR (33.28N 126.17E 73m) 139.0 mm SANGJU (36.40N 128.15E 100m) 116.0 mm CHUPUNGNYEONG (36.22N 128.00E 245m) 114.0 mm 18/0000-19/0000Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed) ================================================ GWANGJU (35.17N 126.90E 74m) 319.5 mm WANDO (34.40N 126.70E 35m) 254.5 mm ANDONG (36.57N 128.72E 141m) 237.0 mm DAEGWALLYEONG (37.68N 128.77E 844m) 220.5 mm JINDO RADAR (34.47N 126.32E 477m) 214.0 mm SOKCHO (38.25N 128.57E 19m) 199.0 mm GANGNEUNG (37.75N 128.90E 26m) 197.5 mm MOKPO (34.82N 126.38E 39m) 195.5 mm DONGHAE RADAR (37.50N 129.13E 37m) 187.5 mm ULJIN (36.98N 129.42E 51m) 183.5 mm DAEGU (35.88N 128.62E 59m) 179.5 mm JEONJU (35.82N 127.15E 55m) 176.5 mm POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 167.5 mm SANGJU (36.40N 128.15E 100m) 154.0 mm CHUPUNGNYEONG (36.22N 128.00E 245m) 144.0 mm YEONGWOL (37.18N 128.47E 237m) 113.5 mm DAEJEON (36.37N 127.37E 72m) 104.5 mm 18/1200-19/1200Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed) ================================================ DAEGWALLYEONG (37.68N 128.77E 844m) 219.0 mm DONGHAE RADAR (37.50N 129.13E 37m) 217.5 mm GANGNEUNG (37.75N 128.90E 26m) 209.5 mm SOKCHO (38.25N 128.57E 19m) 169.0 mm ULJIN (36.98N 129.42E 51m) 165.0 mm POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 143.5 mm DAEGU (35.88N 128.62E 59m) 108.0 mm G. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ News sources indicated that five people were reported dead or missing after Typhoon Megi lashed South Korea with heavy rains and strong winds. The number left homeless by the storm rose to more than 2400. Dozens of domestic flights were cancelled. Typhoon Megi left at least ten dead in Japan, where the previous month's floods had already caused 15 deaths. Most of the casualties were due to floods and landslides while two persons were lost at sea. Also, a man was killed after being struck by wind-borne advertising boarding. Shikoku and the nearby Tsushima Islands were particularly hard hit--205 mm of rain had fallen on some areas of Shikoku by 0000 GMT 20 August. Megi's landfall on northern Japan resulted in large blackouts as electricity to 130,000 homes was cut. Some 700 people were evacuated from their homes due to the heavy rains and 24 airline flights were cancelled. A group of around 165 primary school students stranded by a landslide in western Japan were success- fully rescued by helicopter. (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang) ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for August: 1 tropical depression Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for August --------------------------------------------------- The 2004-2005 Southern Hemisphere season got off to an early start with the formation of a tropical depression (designated as Tropical Depression 01) by Meteo France La Reunion. This system formed just west of 90E and subsequently moved southeastward into Perth's AOR where it became Tropical Cyclone Phoebe on 2 September (TC-01S per JTWC). Since Phoebe became a named cyclone in September, it will be covered in next month's summary. ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and Chris Landsea): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2003 (2002-2003 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific) E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: huangchunliang@hotmail.com Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific) E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au ************************************************************************* *************************************************************************